知识点地图 / 问题解决与数据分析

Probability & Conditional Probability

概率与条件概率

用清楚的样本空间计算概率,条件概率要先缩小作为分母的集合。

01 / UNDERSTAND

这部分需要会什么?

  • 从等可能结果或频数表计算概率
  • 正确确定条件概率的分母
  • 区分互斥、独立和重复计算

核心概念与公式

等可能情形下,概率为有利结果数除以总结果数。条件概率 \(P(A\mid B)=P(A\cap B)/P(B)\),要求 \(P(B)>0\);“已知 B”意味着只在 B 发生的结果中比较。

并集公式为 \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)\)。独立事件满足 \(P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B)\);互斥事件不能同时发生。两个概率都大于零的互斥事件不会独立。

做题时怎样使用

  1. 确定抽取规则与样本空间,检查结果是否等可能
  2. 出现“given”“among”等条件时,先缩小分母范围
  3. 涉及“或”时扣除重复部分,涉及“且”时检查是否真的独立

容易混淆的地方

从表中求“在女生中选择某课程的比例”,分母是女生人数,不是全体人数。不放回抽样一般会改变后续概率。

02 / CONNECT

用一个例题串起方法

知识点教学例题
共有 60 人,其中女生 36 人;女生中有 15 人参加社团。从女生中随机选一人,该人参加社团的概率是多少?
展开解题思路 +

条件已限定为女生,所以概率为 \(15/36=5/12\),不能使用 \(15/60\)。

03 / PRACTISE

本知识点题库

先独立作答,再查看答案与解析。

91 道题目
找到 91 道题目重置筛选
概率与条件概率进阶
Each rock in a collection of 70 rocks was classified as either igneous, metamorphic, or sedimentary, as shown in the frequency table.
题目图表
If one of these rocks is selected at random, what is the probability of selecting a rock that is igneous?
参考答案
2026年8月国际B卷 · 原库模块 1 · Q2作答 ↗
概率与条件概率进阶
题目图表
The table shows the distribution of the 162 igneous rocks in a certain earth science laboratory by mineral composition and texture. What fraction of the laboratory's granitic rocks are coarse‑grained?
参考答案
26年8月国际C卷练习 · 原库模块 1 · Q21作答 ↗
概率与条件概率进阶
Each face of a fair 12-sided die is labeled with a number from 1 through 12, with a different number appearing on each face. If the die is rolled one time, what is the probability of rolling a 5?
参考答案
2026年9月国际A卷 · 原库模块 1 · Q2作答 ↗
概率与条件概率进阶
Each face of a fair 20-sided die is labeled with a number from 1 through 20, with a different number appearing on each face. If the die is rolled one time, what is the probability of rolling a 9?
参考答案
2026年9月国际B卷 · 原库模块 1 · Q2作答 ↗
概率与条件概率进阶
Each face of a fair 16-sided die is labeled with a number from 1 through 16, with a different number appearing on each face. If the die is rolled one time, what is the probability of rolling a 4?
参考答案
2026年9月美国A卷 · 原库模块 1 · Q2作答 ↗
概率与条件概率进阶

For a particular machine that produces beads, 29 out of every 100 beads it produces have a defect. A bead produced by the machine will be selected at random. What is the probability of selecting a bead that has a defect?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题10 · 原库模块 1 · Q1作答 ↗
概率与条件概率基础

A total of 50 children attended a summer camp and were offered 4 types of sandwiches. The table shows the number of children who chose each type of sandwich.
题目图表
If one of these children is selected at random, what is the probability of selecting a child who chose a vegetarian sandwich?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题11 · 原库模块 2 · Q10作答 ↗
概率与条件概率挑战

Set K consists of all the positive integers that are less than or equal to 160, where none of the integers are repeated. If a number is selected at random from set K, what is the probability of selecting a number that is even and less than or equal to 50?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题11 · 原库模块 3 · Q12作答 ↗
概率与条件概率进阶

The table summarizes the distribution of color and shape for 100 tiles of equal area.

RedBlueYellowTotal
Square10202555
Pentagon20101545
Total303040100

If one of these tiles is selected at random, what is the probability of selecting a red tile? (Express your answer as a decimal or fraction, not as a percent.)
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题1 · 原库模块 1 · Q6作答 ↗
概率与条件概率基础

Each face of a fair 14-sided die is labeled with a number from 1 through 14, with a different number appearing on each face. If the die is rolled one time, what is the probability of rolling a 2?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题4 · 原库模块 2 · Q12作答 ↗
概率与条件概率基础

On a street with 7 houses, 2 houses are blue. If a house from this street is selected at random, what is the probability of selecting a house that is blue?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题5 · 原库模块 3 · Q4作答 ↗
概率与条件概率挑战

A grove has 6 rows of birch trees and 5 rows of maple trees. Each row of birch trees has 8 trees 20 feet or taller and 6 trees shorter than 20 feet. Each row of maple trees has 9 trees 20 feet or taller and 7 trees shorter than 20 feet. A tree from one of these rows will be selected at random. What is the probability of selecting a maple tree, given that the tree is 20 feet or taller?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题6 · 原库模块 2 · Q16作答 ↗