知识点地图 / 问题解决与数据分析

Sampling, Inference & Margin of Error

抽样・推断与误差范围

区分总体和样本,理解随机抽样、推断范围与误差界限。

01 / UNDERSTAND

这部分需要会什么?

  • 区分总体、样本和样本统计量
  • 理解随机抽样与随机分组各自支持的结论
  • 解释误差范围并识别样本偏差

核心概念与公式

总体是希望研究的全体对象,样本是实际观测的一部分。随机抽样有助于把结果推广到所抽取的总体;随机分配处理的设计良好的对照实验,有助于判断处理造成的因果影响。这两种随机化用途不同。

估计值加减误差范围构成报告区间,例如 52% ± 3 个百分点给出 49% 至 55%。相同抽样方式和置信水平下,样本量增大通常减小抽样误差;常见情况下误差范围约与样本量平方根成反比。

做题时怎样使用

  1. 先确定研究希望推广到谁,以及样本实际上来自谁
  2. 检查随机抽样、非应答和自愿参与等因素
  3. 只作研究设计支持的结论,读清误差范围的单位与置信条件

容易混淆的地方

样本很大不能自动消除抽样偏差。观察到相关关系不能直接断言因果;误差区间也不是对总体参数位置的绝对保证。

02 / CONNECT

用一个例题串起方法

知识点教学例题
从某校全体学生中随机抽取 400 人,估计支持某方案的比例为 58%,误差范围为 4 个百分点。报告区间是什么,能直接推广到全国学生吗?
展开解题思路 +

报告区间为 \(58\%-4\%=54\%\) 至 \(58\%+4\%=62\%\)。样本来自这一所学校,推断范围应对应这所学校的学生,不能直接推广到全国学生。

03 / PRACTISE

本知识点题库

先独立作答,再查看答案与解析。

54 道题目
找到 54 道题目重置筛选
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

A community organization surveyed a random sample of residents of the community to estimate the percentage of residents who visit their local library at least once per month. From the survey, the organization estimates that 17% of residents of the community visit their local library at least once per month, with an associated margin of error of 3.8%. The organization repeated the survey with a random sample of residents that was double the original sample size. Assuming the margins of error are calculated in the same way for both studies, which of the following is true about the margin of error associated with the estimate from the larger sample?
原库参考解析
2026年5月国际A卷 · 原库模块 2 · Q14作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

A biologist recorded the head stripe colors for a random sample of sparrows from a certain population. Each sparrow has either a white-striped head or a tan-striped head. The results are shown in the table.
题目图表
Based on these results, if there are a total of 686 sparrows in this population, which of the following is the best estimate of how many more sparrows in the population have a tan-striped head than have a white-striped head?
参考答案
2026年6月国际A卷 · 原库模块 2 · Q20作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

A survey was conducted in Madison to estimate the percent of adult residents who support the addition of a gas station at a popular intersection in their town. Based on the survey, it is estimated that 27% of all adult residents of Madison support the addition of a gas station at a popular intersection in their town, with an associated margin of error of 6%. Which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion about all adult residents of Madison?
参考答案
2026年6月国际B卷 · 原库模块 1 · Q10作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

A biologist recorded the head stripe colors for a random sample of sparrows from a certain population. Each sparrow has either a white-striped head or a tan-striped head. The results are shown in the table.
题目图表
Based on these results, if there are a total of 765 sparrows in this population, which of the following is the best estimate of how many more sparrows in the population have a tan-striped head than have a white-striped head?
参考答案
2026年6月国际B卷 · 原库模块 2 · Q5作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战
A researcher surveyed a random sample of 1,380 people from a certain state to estimate the percentage of people who support the governor's recent approval of a bill. From the survey, the researcher estimated that 72% of people from the state support the governor's approval of the bill, with an associated margin of error of 2.37%. The researcher repeated the survey with a random sample of people from the state that was double the original sample size. Assuming the margins of error were calculated in the same way, which of the following is true about the margin of error associated with the estimate from the larger sample?
参考答案
2026年8月美国A卷 · 原库模块 2 · Q17作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战
Four different research groups each surveyed a random sample of students from a certain high school to estimate the percentage of students at the school who speak a second language. The table shows the resulting estimates and their associated margins of error.
题目图表
Assuming the margins of error were calculated in the same way, which group had the largest sample size?
参考答案
2026年9月国际C卷练习 · 原库模块 2 · Q14作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

A machine fills bags with approximately 11 ounces of sugar. To test the accuracy of the filling process, 132 bags of sugar were selected at random and weighed. Based on the sample, it is estimated that the average weight of all bags of sugar filled by the machine in an 8-hour period is 10.83 ounces, with an associated margin of error of 0.2 ounce. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this estimate?
原库参考解析
24年10月北美C卷练习 · 原库模块 1 · Q13作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

For a survey, a sample of 945 people was selected at random from all registered voters in a county. Based on the survey, it is estimated that 71% of all registered voters in the county are in favor of a new law, with an associated margin of error of 2.89%. Which of the following best describes the plausible values for the percent of all registered voters in the county who are in favor of the new law?
原库参考解析
24年8月北美C卷练习 · 原库模块 1 · Q13作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

A researcher is designing a study to investigate the average number of hours students at a high school spend reading per day. The researcher will report an estimated average number of hours students at the high school spend reading per day with an associated margin of error. The researcher is considering using a random sample of either 115 or 230 students from the high school. Which of the following would be the most likely effect of using the larger random sample compared to the smaller random sample?
原库参考解析
25年12月国际C卷练习 · 原库模块 1 · Q15作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围基础

A cable provider wanted to know how many of its 30,000 customers would be interested in a new service plan. The provider selected 300 customers at random and asked each customer whether the customer would be interested in the new plan. Of those surveyed, 8 said they would be interested. Which of the following is the best estimate of the total number of customers who would be interested in the new service plan?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题11 · 原库模块 2 · Q13作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

From a population of 50,000 people,1,000 were chosen at random and surveyed about a proposed piece of legislation.Based on the survey, it is estimated that 35% of people in the population support the legislation, with an associated margin of error of 3%. Based on these results, which of the following is a plausible value for the total number of people in the population who support the proposed legislation?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题1 · 原库模块 1 · Q7作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

Poll Results
Angel Cruz483
Terry Smith320

The table shows the results of a poll. A total of 803 voters selected at random were asked which candidate they would vote for in the upcoming election.According to the poll, if 6,424 people vote in the election, by how many votes would Angel Cruz be expected to win?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题2 · 原库模块 1 · Q21作答 ↗