知识点地图 / 问题解决与数据分析

Sampling, Inference & Margin of Error

抽样・推断与误差范围

区分总体和样本,理解随机抽样、推断范围与误差界限。

01 / UNDERSTAND

这部分需要会什么?

  • 区分总体、样本和样本统计量
  • 理解随机抽样与随机分组各自支持的结论
  • 解释误差范围并识别样本偏差

核心概念与公式

总体是希望研究的全体对象,样本是实际观测的一部分。随机抽样有助于把结果推广到所抽取的总体;随机分配处理的设计良好的对照实验,有助于判断处理造成的因果影响。这两种随机化用途不同。

估计值加减误差范围构成报告区间,例如 52% ± 3 个百分点给出 49% 至 55%。相同抽样方式和置信水平下,样本量增大通常减小抽样误差;常见情况下误差范围约与样本量平方根成反比。

做题时怎样使用

  1. 先确定研究希望推广到谁,以及样本实际上来自谁
  2. 检查随机抽样、非应答和自愿参与等因素
  3. 只作研究设计支持的结论,读清误差范围的单位与置信条件

容易混淆的地方

样本很大不能自动消除抽样偏差。观察到相关关系不能直接断言因果;误差区间也不是对总体参数位置的绝对保证。

02 / CONNECT

用一个例题串起方法

知识点教学例题
从某校全体学生中随机抽取 400 人,估计支持某方案的比例为 58%,误差范围为 4 个百分点。报告区间是什么,能直接推广到全国学生吗?
展开解题思路 +

报告区间为 \(58\%-4\%=54\%\) 至 \(58\%+4\%=62\%\)。样本来自这一所学校,推断范围应对应这所学校的学生,不能直接推广到全国学生。

03 / PRACTISE

本知识点题库

先独立作答,再查看答案与解析。

54 道题目
找到 54 道题目重置筛选
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

To estimate the proportion of a population that has a certain characteristic, a random sample was selected from the population. Based on the sample, it is estimated that the proportion of the population that has the characteristic is 0.49, with an associated margin of error of 0.04. Based on this estimate and margin of error, which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion about the proportion of the population that has the characteristic?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题3 · 原库模块 1 · Q8作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

There are 55 students in Spanish club. A sample of the Spanish club students was selected at random and asked whether they intend to enroll in a new study program. Of those surveyed, 20% responded that they intend to enroll in the study program. Based on this survey, which of the following is the best estimate of the total number of Spanish club students who intend to enroll in the study program?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题4 · 原库模块 3 · Q1作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

A company that produces socks wants to estimate the percent of the socks produced in a typical week that are defective. A random sample of 310 socks produced in a certain week were inspected. Based on the sample, it is estimated that 12% of all socks produced by the company in this week are defective, with an associated margin of error of 3.62%. Based on the estimate and associated margin of error, which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion about all socks produced by the company during this week?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题5 · 原库模块 2 · Q3作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围进阶

Scott selected 20 employees at random from all 400 employees at a company. He found that 16 of the employees in this sample are enrolled in exactly three professional development courses this year. Based on Scott's findings, which of the following is the best estimate of the number of employees at the company who are enrolled in exactly three professional development courses this year?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题6 · 原库模块 1 · Q5作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

A company fills boxes with approximately 23 pounds of oranges. To test the accuracy of the filling process, 344 boxes of oranges were selected at random and weighed. Based on the sample, it is estimated that the average weight of all boxes of oranges filled by the company in an 8-hour period is 23.1 pounds, with an associated margin of error of 0.19 pounds. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this estimate?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题7 · 原库模块 3 · Q7作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

题目图表
The table shows the results of a poll. A total of 803 voters selected at random were asked which candidate they would vote for in the upcoming election. According to the poll, if 6,424 people vote in the election, by how many votes would Angel Cruz be expected to win?
原库参考解析
Bluebook试题8 · 原库模块 3 · Q22作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

题目图表

In a study of cell phone use, 799 randomly selected US teens were asked how often they talked on a cell phone and about their texting behavior. The data are summarized in the table above. Based on the data from the study, an estimate of the percent of US teens who are heavy texters is 30% and the associated margin of error is 3%. Which of the following is a correct statement based on the given margin of error?
原库参考解析
Inference from sample statistics and margin of error · 原库模块 1 · Q1作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

题目图表

A researcher interviewed 411 randomly selected US residents and asked about their views on the use of nuclear energy. The table above summarizes the responses of the interviewees. If the population of the United States was 300 million when the survey was given, based on the sample data for the 411 US residents, what is the best estimate, in millions, of the difference between the number of US residents who somewhat favor or strongly favor the use of nuclear energy and the number of those who somewhat oppose or strongly oppose it? (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)
原库参考解析
Inference from sample statistics and margin of error · 原库模块 1 · Q2作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

题目图表

The results of two random samples of votes for a proposition are shown above. The samples were selected from the same population, and the margins of error were calculated using the same method. Which of the following is the most appropriate reason that the margin of error for sample A is greater than the margin of error for sample B?
原库参考解析
Inference from sample statistics and margin of error · 原库模块 1 · Q3作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

In State X, Mr. Camp’s eighth-grade class consisting of 26 students was surveyed and 34.6 percent of the students reported that they had at least two siblings. The average eighth‑grade class size in the state is 26. If the students in Mr. Camp’s class are representative of students in the state’s eighth-grade classes and there are 1,800 eighth-grade classes in the state, which of the following best estimates the number of eighth‑grade students in the state who have fewer than two siblings?
原库参考解析
Inference from sample statistics and margin of error · 原库模块 1 · Q4作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

题目图表

The table shows the results of a poll. A total of 803 voters selected at random were asked which candidate they would vote for in the upcoming election. According to the poll, if 6,424 people vote in the election, by how many votes would Angel Cruz be expected to win?
原库参考解析
Inference from sample statistics and margin of error · 原库模块 1 · Q5作答 ↗
抽样・推断与误差范围挑战

A sample of 40 fourth-grade students was selected at random from a certain school. The 40 students completed a survey about the morning announcements, and 32 thought the announcements were helpful. Which of the following is the largest population to which the results of the survey can be applied?
原库参考解析
Observational studies and experiments · 原库模块 1 · Q1作答 ↗